대한민국은 지난 20년간 ‘북한’과 ‘통일’을 어떻게 보았는가? : 언론 보도 빅데이터 분석 및 국민 인식 종단연구
초록
본 연구는 2003년 이후 ‘북한’과 ‘통일’이 포함된 네이버 내 약 40만여 개 기사의 언어 형태소 및 감성어를 분석하였다. 이를 통해 정부(노무현, 이명박, 박근혜+황교안, 문재인 정부)와 정파적 언론(진보/보수)에 따른 기사 내 언어적 강도, 정서적 표현 빈도, 정서의 방향성(긍·부정)의 차이가 분석되었다. 더불어 2003년 이후 매해 1,300명 대상 17년간의 대국민 인식 설문 분석을 이용하여 인구학적 속성, 개인 정치성향, 조사연도, 진보/보수 정부 시기에 따른 ‘북한과 통일에 대한 태도’의 차이가 분석되었다. 연구결과, 노무현 정부기간에 언어적 강도와 정서적 빈도 변화가 많았고, 박근혜 정부에서는 노무현 정부 다음으로 언어적 강도와 정서적 빈도가 높았다. 그러나 긍정적 정서량은 박근혜, 문재인, 노무현, 이명박 정부 순서로 많았다. 박근혜 정부기간 언론기사에서 긍정적 정서성과 부정적 정서성이 모두 높은 양상인 반면, 대국민 조사에서는 ‘북한’과 ‘통일’에 대한 태도(노무현 > 문재인 > 이명박 > 박근혜 정부)가 가장 낮은 시기였다. 여론 조사 결과 관련, 여성은 남성에 비해 ‘북한’에 대해서는 더 긍정적이고, ‘통일’에 대해서는 더 부정적이다. 교육수준과 수입이 높을수록 ‘북한’에 긍정적, 교육수준이 높을수록 ‘통일’에 긍정적이었다. 최근에 올수록 ‘북한’과 ‘통일’에 부정적이고, 연령이 낮을수록 ‘북한’에 더 부정적이었다. 정부의 정파성은 ‘북한’에 대한 태도에만 영향을 주어 진보정부 시기일수록 국민들은 ‘북한’에 긍정적이었다. 언론의 정파성에 따른 특징을 보면, 진보언론이 보수언론에 비해 북한의 대남정책과 행동, 남북관계 상황에 보다 민감하게 반응을 보이고 있었다. 가장 특이한 발견은 언론 전체가 북한, 통일에 대해서 긍정적 정서성이 강하며, 보수언론의 언어적 강도와 정서성이 진보언론에 비해서 전반적으로 높을 뿐만 아니라, 긍정적 정서성도 진보언론에 비해 전반적으로 더 높았다. 이런 결과는 위 진보정부에서 국민이 ‘북한’에 긍정적인 결과와 비교해보면, 적어도 남북관련 의제는 남북정부가 이끌며, 언론이 의제를 선도하기 어려움이 유추된다. 관련된 해석이 논의되었다.
Abstract
This study analyzed the language morphemes and emotional words of about 400,000 articles in Naver, including ‘North Korea’ and ‘Reunification’ since 2003. Through this, the differences in the linguistic intensity of the article, the frequency of emotional expression, and the direction of emotion (positive and negative) were analyzed according to the government (Roh Moo-hyun, Lee Myung-bak, Park Geun-hye + Hwang Gyo-an, Moon Jae-in government) and the factional media (progress/conservative). In addition, the difference in ‘attitude toward North Korea and reunification’ according to demographic attributes, personal political orientation, survey year, and liberal/conservative government period was analyzed using a 17-year survey of public perception of 1,300 people each year since 2003. As a result of the study, there were many changes in linguistic intensity and emotional frequency during the Roh Moo-hyun government. In the Park Geun-hye government, after the Roh Moo-hyun government, the verbal intensity and emotional frequency were higher. However the amount of positive sentiment was most in the order of Park Geun-hye, Moon Jae-in, Roh Moo-hyun, and Lee Myung-bak government. In media reports during the Park Geun-hye government, both positive and negative emotions were high, while the attitude toward ‘North Korea’ and ‘Reunification’ was the lowest in the public survey (Roh Moo-hyun > Moon Jae-in > Lee Myung-bak > Park Geun-hye government). Regarding the results of public opinion polls, women are more positive about 'North Korea' and more negative about 'Reunification' than men. The higher the level of education and income, the more positive for 'North Korea', and the higher the level of education, the more positive for 'Reunification'. The more recent it came, the more negative it was for 'North Korea' and 'Reunification', and the younger the age, the more negative for 'North Korea'. The political faction of the government only affected the attitude toward ‘North Korea,’ so the more progressive governments were, the more positive the people were toward ‘North Korea.’ Looking at the characteristics of the media's political faction, progressive media responded more sensitively to North Korea's South Korean policies and actions, and inter-Korean relations than conservative media. The most peculiar finding was that the media as a whole had a strong positive sentiment toward North Korea and reunification, the linguistic intensity and emotionality of conservative media were generally higher than that of progressive media, and the positive sentiment was generally higher than that of progressive media. On the other hand, as a result of public opinion polls, the political faction of the government had no influence on the attitude of the people toward ‘Reunification,’ but it had an effect on the attitude toward ‘North Korea’. Related interpretations were discussed.
Keywords:
North Korea, Reunification, Sentiment words analysis, Longitudinal study, Public opinion키워드:
북한, 통일, 감성어 분석, 종단연구, 국민인식References
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